Projected copper supply gap by 2035 (S&P Global)
Demand growth projected by 2040 vs. today (IEA)
More copper in EVs vs. combustion engine vehicles
Avg. mine discovery-to-production timeline
Sources: Source 1, Source 2
More copper in EVs vs. ICE vehicles
Demand growth projected by 2040
Annual demand by 2030 (IEA)
*Click to Expand Image
Sources:
1: International Copper Association (ICA) 2024 2: CRU Group, Copper Market Outlook 2024
3: BloombergNEF EV Outlook 2024 4: IEA, Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions 2024
*Click to Expand Image
Illustrative projection based on IEA & S&P Global data. Assumes current mine pipeline only.
The copper market is entering a structural supply-demand imbalance that cannot be resolved by price alone — new mines take 16+ years to develop, meaning the deficit will persist and deepen regardless of short-term price signals.
projected gap by 2035
by 2040 vs. today
per tonne LT forecast
avg. discovery to production
Sources:
1: S&P Global / Wood Mackenzie Copper Market Outlook 2024. 2: IEA, Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions 2024
3: Goldman Sachs Commodities Research, April 2024 4: World Copper Council / ICMM, Mine Development Pipeline 2024
The IEA projects copper demand will grow 53% by 2040 versus today, with annual demand reaching 28Mt by 2030. Growth is driven by electrification, electric vehicles, renewable generation and grid infrastructure buildout.
S&P Global projects a copper supply gap of approximately 9Mt by 2035. That deficit reflects the difference between forecast demand and the supply available from existing and committed mine production.
The average timeline from discovery to production for a new mine is 16 years. Because that lead time is fixed by permitting, engineering and construction, higher prices cannot bring new supply online fast enough to close a near-term deficit.
Electric vehicles require 2 to 4 times more copper than internal combustion engine vehicles. EV fast chargers add roughly 0.5 kg of copper wiring each.
Offshore wind installations require approximately 8 tonnes of copper per megawatt, around 5 times the intensity of conventional power generation.
Goldman Sachs forecasts long-term copper prices above $12,000 per tonne.
The current outlook is structural rather than cyclical. Demand growth is tied to a multi-decade buildout of electrification and grid infrastructure, while supply is constrained by long development timelines, creating an imbalance that cannot be resolved by price alone.
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